Weight-Loss Drugs Could Cost Just $3 a Month to Make as Patents End

Harriet Pemberton • April 28, 2026 02:09

A high-profile anti-obesity and diabetes medicine could be made for as little as US$3 (about £2.40) per month once it falls out of patent protection later this month, according to researchers - a shift they say could dramatically widen access in low- and middle-income countries.

Semaglutide: Ozempic and Wegovy’s active ingredient and the impact on obesity and diabetes

The medicine in question is semaglutide, the key molecule in Novo Nordisk’s branded treatments Ozempic and Wegovy. In patients, semaglutide has been shown to drive substantial weight loss, which can in turn support the management of diabetes and other health conditions linked to obesity.

Patent changes for semaglutide in Brazil, China and India - and countries where it was never patented

Later this month, semaglutide is due to lose patent protection in several major markets, including Brazil, China and India. The researchers also identified 150 countries where semaglutide was never patented.

Taking these factors together, the team estimated there are 160 countries in which semaglutide will not be covered by patent protection.

Estimated generic production cost versus branded US price

To approximate what generic manufacturing might cost, researchers based in Britain, South Africa and New Zealand drew on pricing data from other medicines that have only recently come off patent.

On that basis, they calculated that producing a one-month supply of semaglutide could cost as little as US$3. By comparison, they noted that semaglutide in its branded form sells for roughly US$200 per month in the United States.

Why broader access matters for chronic disease outcomes

Dr Samuel Cross of Imperial College London, one of the study’s authors, stressed that obesity and diabetes are long-term conditions that raise the likelihood of severe complications, including stroke, diabetes, heart disease, kidney failure and cancer.

He argued that if generic production brings prices down to levels health systems can sustain, millions more people may be able to obtain treatment.

Worldwide, hundreds of millions of people live with Type 2 diabetes, which can result in outcomes such as kidney failure, blindness and amputation. Separately, the researchers cited that clinical obesity is associated with around 3.7 million deaths each year globally.

They also estimated that the 160 countries where semaglutide will not be under patent encompass around 69% of people living with Type 2 diabetes worldwide and about 84% of people with clinical obesity.

Lessons from HIV, TB, malaria and hepatitis medicines - and what it could mean for semaglutide

Another author, Professor Francois Venter of the University of the Witwatersrand in South Africa, pointed to past experience with treatments for HIV, TB, malaria and hepatitis. He said these medicines are now commonly sold at prices close to their production costs - while still leaving enough margin for generic manufacturers to remain viable.

In his view, the same pattern of expanded access could be achieved for semaglutide as well.

Practical considerations beyond price

Even if the cost of semaglutide falls sharply after patent expiry, meaningful access will also depend on regulatory approval routes, quality-assured manufacturing, and reliable distribution. For many health systems, ensuring consistent supply - alongside appropriate clinical monitoring for patients - will be essential to translate lower prices into better outcomes.

In addition, demand is likely to rise quickly where the medicine becomes affordable, which can create short-term supply pressure. Planning for procurement, training, and patient follow-up will help countries maximise the public-health benefits of wider semaglutide availability.