The lull that followed the most recent El Niño is not delivering respite. Instead, climate researchers warn it may be priming the Pacific for another pronounced shift-one that could reconfigure weather patterns worldwide, intensify extremes and drive temperatures into unfamiliar territory in the coming years.
ENSO in 2026: another climate jolt is already pencilled in
Scientists anticipate that a recognisable phase of the climate system will re-emerge around 2026, with consequences extending well beyond the Pacific Ocean. This behaviour-shaped by temperature fluctuations along the equatorial Pacific-belongs to a naturally occurring rhythm called ENSO, short for El Niño–Southern Oscillation.
ENSO tends to flip irregularly between two principal “modes”:
- El Niño – surface waters across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific run warmer than the long-term average
- La Niña – surface waters in the same area run cooler than the long-term average
In either phase, heat and moisture are shifted around the globe. When these swings align with human-driven global warming, the outcome is not merely higher average temperatures but more pronounced extremes: more intense heatwaves, heavier downpours and longer periods of drought.
The same Pacific cycle that helped tip 2024 into record-breaking heat looks set to return in a new, more loaded climate.
Why 2024 was a warning shot rather than a one-off
Even now, 2024 remains the hottest year observed since modern instrumental records began. That milestone was not a fluke; it was produced by two powerful influences arriving together.
- Persistent warming driven by greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide and methane
- A strong El Niño event that ran from spring 2023 to spring 2024
Either factor can warm the planet by itself. In 2024 they compounded. Greenhouse gases lift the underlying global temperature “floor”, and El Niño then acts on top of that elevated baseline, pushing temperatures higher still.
Years dominated by El Niño tend to be hotter than La Niña years; with a warmer background climate, those spikes become more extreme.
This is why many climate scientists see 2024 less as an anomaly and more as an early glimpse of what is increasingly likely. If the Pacific swings back into a strong phase again around 2026, it will do so in a world that is warmer than it was only a few years earlier.
How the Pacific sets the tempo for global weather
The equatorial Pacific functions like a vast heat engine within Earth’s climate system. If its surface waters warm or cool by only 1–2°C, the atmosphere reacts in turn.
| Phase | Pacific conditions | Typical global impacts |
|---|---|---|
| El Niño | Warmer surface waters in the central/eastern equatorial Pacific | Higher global mean temperatures, shifted rainfall patterns, drought in some tropical areas and flooding in others |
| La Niña | Cooler surface waters in the same region | Slightly lower global mean temperature, stronger Atlantic hurricanes, wetter conditions in some places and drier conditions in others |
| Neutral | Temperatures close to the long-term average | Fewer reliable global patterns, though local weather remains variable |
Pacific temperature anomalies can affect where storms form, how the jet streams buckle, and which regions end up waterlogged or drought-stricken. Western Europe-including France and the UK-sits downstream of these atmospheric knock-on effects.
A strong Pacific phase in 2026 would not, by itself, “cause” every storm or heatwave. However, it would shift the probabilities. Warmer oceans can supply warmer air masses that feed European heat episodes. Changes in circulation can also favour stubborn high-pressure “domes” that trap hot, dry weather-or, in other years, support prolonged wet spells.
What signals are building at the moment?
To follow Pacific conditions, oceanographers rely on an extensive observing system combining buoys, satellites and ship-based measurements. They look months ahead for subtle precursors: where warm water is accumulating beneath the surface, how the trade winds are behaving and whether the tropical atmosphere is beginning to respond to (or “listen” to) the ocean.
Those early indicators imply that, after the recent El Niño waned, the Pacific is not simply settling into an extended, cool La Niña interval. Instead, modelling points to a strong likelihood that another distinct ENSO phase will take shape around 2026-again tending to add warmth to global temperatures.
Short neutral pauses between El Niño and La Niña are increasingly sitting on a warmer background ocean, which means the next swing up can be stronger and more damaging.
The Pacific itself is evolving as well. Heat trapped by human emissions does not remain solely in the atmosphere; a large share has been absorbed by the upper ocean. That stored heat increases the chances that each new El Niño can help propel global temperatures towards fresh records.
France and Europe: what might be ahead?
ENSO does not single-handedly dictate French weather, yet recent events offer useful clues. A strong El Niño is often linked with milder, wetter winters in parts of western Europe, alongside a higher likelihood of hot, dry summer spells. For farming, water supply and energy systems, that mix can be highly disruptive.
By 2026, European infrastructure may be facing several compounding pressures:
- Higher average temperatures increasing baseline electricity demand for cooling
- A greater likelihood of compound extremes, such as heatwaves occurring after spring flooding
- More frequent “record-breaking” events that older design standards were never built to handle
In France, the practical outcomes could include elevated wildfire risk, increased strain on rivers used to cool nuclear power stations, and more vulnerable harvests for crops such as wheat, maize and grapes-depending on how rainfall patterns evolve.
ENSO, climate change and the prospect of an extreme decade
A central concern for researchers is how ENSO variability interacts with long-term warming. El Niño and La Niña have always been part of the natural climate system; what has changed is the baseline they now operate on.
Global mean temperature has already increased by roughly 1.2–1.3°C relative to pre-industrial levels. Today, each strong El Niño can drive annual averages close to-or briefly beyond-the 1.5°C threshold referenced in international climate agreements. If a similarly strong warming phase returns in 2026, yearly temperatures could again be pushed towards that level.
Natural climate swings are no longer oscillating around a familiar baseline; they are riding on a rising slope, which amplifies their impact on societies and ecosystems.
That, in turn, increases the chance of crossing critical thresholds in certain regions. Coral reefs, for example, are highly vulnerable to short-lived marine heatwaves. Repeated El Niño-linked warm surges layered on top of long-term warming can trigger mass bleaching and mortality. In the Arctic, unusually warm years speed up sea-ice decline and permafrost thaw.
Key terms likely to matter over the next few years
As this Pacific shift develops, several technical terms are likely to appear more frequently:
- Sea surface temperature anomaly: the gap between today’s ocean temperatures and the long-term average for a particular region and season.
- Teleconnection: a climatic link between far-apart areas-for example, changes in the Pacific affecting European weather patterns.
- Compound event: when hazards occur together or in quick succession-such as a heatwave after heavy rainfall-so the combined impacts are worse than each event on its own.
Grasping these concepts helps explain how a small temperature change in one part of the Pacific can translate into higher food prices, damaged transport networks or overwhelmed hospitals thousands of kilometres away.
How people and systems can prepare for a sharper swing
ENSO-linked seasonal forecasts can provide a lead time of a few months, which is useful if acted upon. Farmers can alter planting decisions and irrigation strategies. Electricity grid operators can plan for demand spikes during hot summers. Local councils can update heat action plans, ready cooling centres and test public-warning communications.
In coastal areas, officials may reassess flood defences and drainage capacity, given that El Niño years can increase the likelihood of intense rainfall, while La Niña can shift storm risks elsewhere. Health services can also pre-position medicines and organise outreach for vulnerable groups ahead of forecast heatwaves or unusual cold snaps.
Over longer timescales, urban planners and national governments are increasingly treating ENSO phases as a stress test for critical infrastructure. Building regulations, water storage, crop insurance and energy planning all need to account for a climate in which natural variability and human-driven warming interact-raising the ceiling on extremes and making new records easier to set.
The Pacific is already offering early hints that the next major swing may not be far off. How effectively societies interpret those signs-and how quickly they act-will strongly influence how disruptive the next climate phase becomes.
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