The Indian and German governments are closing in on an $8 billion package to jointly build advanced submarines in India, with a full transfer of German technology under discussion and Chancellor Friedrich Merz due in the country within days.
India’s biggest-ever submarine bet
India and Germany are approaching an agreement valued at no less than $8 billion to produce six conventionally powered submarines in Mumbai. The effort falls under India’s long-delayed Project 75 (India), better known as P‑75(I) - a programme intended to modernise an ageing underwater force while embedding overseas expertise inside Indian shipyards.
If signed, the deal would become one of India’s largest defence industrial projects, anchoring a generation of naval cooperation with Germany.
Momentum has picked up in advance of Merz’s scheduled trip to India on 12–13 January 2026. In Berlin and New Delhi, officials view the submarine package as a centrepiece of a wider drive spanning trade, technology links and security cooperation.
Who builds what for P‑75(I): Thyssenkrupp and Mazagon Dock
On paper, the industrial arrangement is clear - but executing it will be exacting. Germany’s Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) would team up with India’s state-owned Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited (MDL) in Mumbai.
- TKMS: design authority, key technologies, and air‑independent propulsion (AIP) expertise
- MDL: on-site build, integration work, and delivery to the Indian Navy
- Indian suppliers: an expanding portion of parts, maintenance tooling, and support equipment
Rather than buying submarines completed in Germany, New Delhi is pushing for assembly - and much of the manufacturing - to happen at MDL. That matches India’s post‑2020 approach, which favours domestic production of major defence platforms instead of off-the-shelf imports.
The package combines the cost of six submarines with the far more strategic prize: detailed design data and production methods for one of the most complex platforms a navy can operate.
Set up this way, MDL would be positioned not only to build the boats, but to maintain and refit them over the long term - and, in time, to add Indian weapons and sensors across a service life of 30‑plus years.
Why India needs new submarines now
Pressure on India’s conventional submarine arm is mounting. The Navy fields 16 diesel‑electric submarines, with several now more than 30 years old. Six more modern French-designed Scorpène boats - constructed at MDL as the Kalvari class - have helped, but they have not fully narrowed the capability gap with regional competitors.
P‑75(I), costed at around ₹70,000 crore (roughly $8.3 billion), is designed to arrest that decline. Its central requirement is for six submarines fitted with air‑independent propulsion (AIP), enabling conventional boats to remain underwater far longer without needing to surface or snorkel.
These AIP conventional submarines are intended to complement India’s expanding nuclear-powered Arihant‑class force. Arihant is primarily about strategic nuclear deterrence; P‑75(I) is aimed at daily sea-control tasks, intelligence gathering and deterrence against surface combatants and hostile submarines.
Type 214: the frontrunner design
The platform most often associated with the India–Germany negotiations is the German-designed Type 214. Already operated by Greece, South Korea, Turkey and Portugal, it has become TKMS’s leading export submarine for advanced non‑nuclear navies.
| Feature | Typical Type 214 specification |
|---|---|
| Propulsion | Diesel-electric with fuel-cell AIP |
| Displacement (surfaced) | Approx. 1,700–2,000 tonnes |
| Length | Low‑80‑metre range |
| Armament | 533 mm torpedo tubes for torpedoes and anti‑ship missiles |
| Max diving depth | Reported close to 400 metres |
India is unlikely to replicate an off-the-shelf Type 214 without changes. P‑75(I) indicates a bigger submarine of roughly 3,000 tonnes, implying a stretched or substantially reworked variant aligned with Indian requirements, including its combat system and weapons fit.
How AIP changes the game
A typical diesel‑electric submarine must periodically surface or raise a snorkel to run diesel engines and recharge batteries - the point at which it is most exposed to detection.
An AIP system lets a conventional submarine stay submerged for weeks rather than days on low‑speed patrol, making it quieter and harder to track.
The Type 214’s fuel-cell AIP can generate electricity underwater without combustion, lowering noise levels and reducing exhaust signatures. For Indian operations in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, that additional stealth endurance is a substantial operational advantage.
Strategic politics behind the deal
The calendar is deliberate. Merz’s first official visit to India includes discussions with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Gujarat and engagements in Bengaluru, the country’s leading technology and innovation centre. The submarine package sits within a broader agenda that also spans pharmaceuticals, industrial investment and the long-stalled EU–India free trade agreement.
Germany’s delegation will extend beyond government. A sizeable group of German business leaders is expected to travel as well, underlining that the submarine project also serves as an economic anchor. Separately, a further - still unscheduled - Merz visit to China highlights how carefully Berlin is trying to position itself across Asia.
For India, the prospective agreement aligns with three overlapping priorities: pushing back against China’s growing naval footprint, expanding domestic industrial capacity, and slowly trimming reliance on Russian hardware, which still makes up a significant portion of its inventory.
By locking in German technology and local production, New Delhi gains leverage in both defence and diplomacy, without fully tying itself to any single supplier.
For Germany, approving technology transfer at this depth would signal a departure from its traditionally cautious approach to arms exports. Russia’s war in Ukraine and Berlin’s subsequent emphasis on strengthening defence-industrial capacity have shifted policy towards firmer partnerships with like‑minded countries.
What this means for France and other suppliers
A German-led solution would create complications for Paris. India has also been considering a follow-on order for three additional French Scorpène submarines, building on the six already delivered or under construction at MDL. Should the German package proceed at the mooted scale, the French option could be deferred or dropped.
That would not end India–France naval collaboration, but it would change the weighting. The P‑75(I) submarines would likely form the core of India’s future conventional fleet, while existing Scorpènes and upgraded Russian-origin boats would sustain numbers for years ahead.
How such a programme actually unfolds
Even with a political announcement, moving from signature to an operational submarine typically takes years. A plausible timeline is as follows:
- Year 1–2: final design freeze, technology transfer documentation, and training for Indian engineers and shipyard staff
- Year 2–3: steel cutting and construction of the first hull at MDL, under intensive German oversight
- Year 4–6: trials, integration of Indian sensors and weapons, and delivery of the first submarine
- Following years: faster serial production of the remaining five boats, with increasing Indian content
Slippage is common in programmes of this complexity, and scrutiny will focus on both timetable and cost discipline. Still, once the first submarines enter service, India would gain not only new platforms but also a markedly stronger domestic capability to build submarines.
Key concepts: air‑independent propulsion and sea denial
Two phrases are likely to recur as the project advances: AIP and “sea denial”.
Air‑independent propulsion (AIP). Put simply, AIP enables a non‑nuclear submarine to produce power underwater without using atmospheric oxygen. This can be done with fuel cells, Stirling engines or closed-cycle solutions. The result is fewer shallow-water periods and a sharply reduced risk of detection.
Sea denial. This refers to making it dangerous or costly for an adversary’s ships to operate in a particular area, even if you cannot fully control that area yourself. AIP submarines are well suited to sea denial in chokepoints such as the Malacca Strait approaches or important stretches of the Arabian Sea.
Risks, benefits and what could come next
The upsides for India are straightforward: improved underwater deterrence, tougher and more resilient supply chains, and access to advanced German naval engineering. But the downsides are real. Budget overruns could crowd out other naval needs, including extra destroyers or maritime patrol aircraft. Schedule delays could also force India to rely on life-extended older submarines further into the 2030s than planners would prefer.
If the programme broadly holds to plan, New Delhi could ultimately pair these German-backed conventional submarines with domestically built nuclear boats and long-range maritime surveillance aircraft. Together, that combination would offer layered options in response to Chinese and Pakistani naval activity - from discreet tracking to the threat of torpedo or missile strikes by unseen platforms.
For Germany, a successful partnership in Mumbai could become a model for working with other Indo‑Pacific states seeking modern submarines without full nuclear capability. Given the deal’s scale and the sensitivity of the technology transfer, observers in European capitals - as well as in Beijing and Moscow - will watch closely.
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